2 Missed Opportunities? UTX and BA

Saw these yesterday but wimped out of them.  something to do with being over concerned about the SP1 and ND1 uptrend, but of course not all stocks go up at the same time.

+£14.75 BAC Long

Again simple trade (same as GE trade). Noticed price had returned to weekly demand so took a long entry off this level when daily price action reached it. I was hoping that there were either still unfilled buy orders sitting around that level or simply that there would have been a strong-ish demand /supply imbalance there.

Took profit around 1:1 on BAC, this is a likely fault. had been up a lot last week. On realizing that it had been near a 2:1 profit target closed out this trade as noticed some S&P daily supply overhead.

+£33.30 GE Long

Again simple trade. Noticed price had returned to weekly demand so took a long entry off this level when daily price action reached it. I was hoping that there were either still unfilled buy orders sitting around that level or simply that there would have been a strong-ish demand /supply imbalance there.

Took profit around 2:1 on GE, this is likely a fault!

+£20.52 GOOGL Long

Pretty simple trade. Bought on a retest of an objective level of demand on both daily and weekly charts using HOLP (high of low period) on the hammer there. Tried this for the first time on the 12th January but got stopped out. RRR 2:1 (really should have held out longer to objective area of supply at the  pivot high in late December.

Missed a CVX Trade

Missed a good trade because I hadn't marked Weekly demand as a zone  (with 2 lines).

-£2.42 LGEN Short, discretionary exit

Got short LGEN from a supply level originating from a pivot high. Exit entirely discretionary and no where near my stop or limit order.   Been entertaining introducing a trailing stop at the high or low of trend bars and had I on this trade I would already be out for a small profit.  Guess we'll see in the coming days whether I was correct...

+£9.71 Long AAPL

All in the chart, just cautious on profit target and wound it in from supply level to just below it.

Anxiety Creeping In After 1 Loss

I wanted to document this immediately as it is amazing how quickly my fear/anxiety has crept in and started to debilitate my trading. Making me doubt my strategy,  making me doubt my objectivity, in fact, I have made my evening scanning a more efficient process but it took me twice as long because I was agonizing over every chart that was at or  a supply or demand level (my setup), wondering if the levels S/D were objective. This was after one trade getting stopped out!

I have never journaled my emotions before, I hope that this my help me overcome them. 

-£13.10 GOOGL Long, bad luck?

Veering towards bad luck on this trade. Looking at this objectively both levels of demand (daily and weekly) were untested, so fresh and as such likely to have unfilled buy orders sitting around them and this is not a place one would immediately think there would be a supply/demand equilibrium. Perhaps not the best candle action to enter on , but strictly speaking this shouldn't matter as I am trading levels not candle patterns. Thinking of re-entering this trade tomorrow should it tick above the current hammer on chart.

One negative factor on this trade is the fact that price is trending down on the daily chart.

+£1.25 SPD Long: Fault, Got Emotional/Fearful During Correction.

Still have no proof that I was right or wrong by moving stop to BE (break even), time will tell.  However I'm going to lean towards being wrong.

The main thing I want to take from this is the importance of the the last swing (not the last several,  like my emotions made me entertain here). If I want to short, my attention should be in the action of the last swing high.  Were there gap ups or pivot lows between my desired entry and profit target?  If so these will likely be a problem as supply and demand will be more balanced and there is likely a higher probability bet out there for my money. That being a bet with no issues between entry and profit target from last swing (a stronger supply/demand imbalance!).

-£0.06 OML Short: Fault, Demand Level Before Profit Target

Poor prep. Should have spotted the gap up would act as demand (price can only gap up if there are more buy orders than sell orders=demand). Luckily spotted this before any damage was done and moved stop to BE (break even). The minus 6p was the overnight commission fee.

Correct Discretion

Below are two charts that I avoided, one of a STAN short the other a MKS long.

In both these examples even if they work out in the future I am certain I was correct to avoid the bets. The reason for my certainty lies in the difficulty both potentially had in getting to a 2:1 profit target.  The STAN short had 2 levels of demand before reaching its profit target (3rd level of demand) coupled with the fact that the short was originating of an old level of supply (so likely less sell orders sitting there now!), while the MKS long had 2 levels of supply before reaching its profit target (3rd level or supply).

Regardless of whether these bets work there would have been safer/ more probable bets elsewhere.

Lesson:  Avoiding trades originating off previously used levels of S/D and/or with additional S/D levels to surpass before meeting there profit targets is good objective discretion. As in both these cases the supply/demand imbalance is likely to to be far smaller and so a strong move less likely.

Incorrect Discretion

Below are two charts I avoided, a JPM short and an AV long. In both cases I was far too consumed with the candles (price action) instead of objective supply and demand levels. More info in chart...

Lesson: Supply and Demand over Candles! In both these bets I was far too concerned about the minute price action around an area of supply(demand) rather than focusing on the fact that price was at an objective level of supply(demand). I don't need bullish candle patterns to buy at demand or bearish to sell at supply as price is at an objective level where there is a supply/demand imbalance!

Introduction

Hi, this is going to be a blog documenting my spread betting account; the bets I take, the reasons I take them, the lessons I learn from them and of course my profit/loss. I will be updating the blog when bets/trades close, I'm betting off daily charts so this might be sporadic.

I am currently betting only on UK and US stocks but have no qualms in betting other markets. For those of you who are interested, my method of trading is entirely price action based. My charts are naked (no indicators) with the exception of horizontal lines that I believe mark objective levels of supply and demand.  I wait for price to get to these levels,  shorting at supply and buying at demand.

As I'm trading daily charts I'm pretty much an EOD (End Of Day) trader. I do my prep in the evening when the markets are closed and will place orders then, provided the spread at that time doesn't eat too much of my profit potential.  If the spread is an issue I will buy on the open of the market when the spread is more reasonable. I am looking for a minimum of 2:1 on my bets,  risk 1 to get 2 in return.

I monitor my open bets at the end of day. I find that watching open positions triggers my emotions and anytime I am emotional I am not objective, which is the only mindset I wish to be in when speculating. This does not mean I don't still make rash decisions (a recent Sports Direct short is likely a good example of this), but hopefully far less of them. If I exit a bet discretionary (before my stop or limit is met) I will update that post at a later date to confirm whether it was a good or bad decision and why.

The equipment I use is very simple, a laptop with broadband, tradingview.com to monitor my US stock watchlist and ETX capital (my spreadbet account) to monitor the UK stocks. The reason they are separate is because tradingview.com does not offer realtime UK data.  All bets are placed on ETX.

Any questions. or anyone else doing something similar, drop me a line or leave a comment,  it would be good to hear from you.